Erasmus MC

New response evaluation criteria in solid tumours: Revised RECIST guideline (version 1.1)

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Assessing the Performance of Prediction Models

The performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic for discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration.Several new measures have recently been proposed that can be seen as refinements of discrimination measures, including variants of the c statistic for survival, reclassification tables, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Moreover, decision-analytic measures have been proposed, including decision curves to plot the net benefit achieved by making decisions based on model predictions.We aimed to define the role of these relatively novel approaches in the evaluation of the performance of prediction models. For illustration, we present a case study of predicting the presence of residual tumor versus benign tissue in patients with testicular cancer (n = 544 for model development, n = 273 for external validation).We suggest that reporting discrimination and calibration will always be important for a prediction model. Decision-analytic measures should be reported if the predictive model is to be used for clinical decisions. Other measures of performance may be warranted in specific applications, such as reclassification metrics to gain insight into the value of adding a novel predictor to an established model.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. RESULTS: In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

Biology and novel treatment options for XLA, the most common monogenetic immunodeficiency in man

INTRODUCTION: X-linked agammaglobulinemia (XLA) is the most common primary immunodeficiency in man, and is caused by a single genetic defect. Inactivating mutations in the Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) gene are invariably the cause of XLA,. XLA is characterized by a differentiation arrest at the pre-B cell stage, the absence of immunoglobulins and recurrent bacterial infections, making it an insidious disease that gradually disables the patient, and can result in death due to chronic lung disease. Current treatment involves prophylactic antibiotics and immunoglobulin infusions, which are non-curative. This disease is a good candidate for curative hematopoietic stem cell (HSC)-based gene therapy, which could correct the B cell and myeloid deficiencies. AREAS COVERED: This paper reviews the basic biology of BTK in B cell development, the clinical features of XLA, and the possibilities of gene therapy for XLA, covering the literature from 1995 to 2010. EXPERT OPINION: Work from various laboratories demonstrates the feasibility of using gene-corrected HSCs to complement the immune defects of Btk-deficiency in mice. We propose that it is timely to start clinical programs to develop stem cell based therapy for XLA, using gene-corrected autologous HSC.